Perspectives on the Japanese economy – series II

Series II

Reasons behind the slowdown; standard economic cycle behaviour or a peculiarly Japanese problem?

All economies  go through cycles. Standard economic cycles range from 5-7 years, The unusual feature of the Japanese path is that it has been sustained for longer than normal. As will be argued below, the decline in the high savings rate, formerly a bedrock of the Japanese economy is seen a  principal reasons for this decline but there are other characteristics of the Japanese economy which played a role. Several  these can be listed under issues of inflexibility in the labour and capital markets .

The Japanese policy of life-long employment, while having benefits of stability and high morale during good time, prevented rapid adjustment to changed  economic conditions.  Similarly, Japanese industry was slow to innovate and was ill equipped to counteract the more dynamic economies of South Korea and China.  Finally, Governments were slow to ease capital restrictions and use flexible monetary policy when needed . However, declining domestic savings is a key reason From  highs during the economic boom of a 20% domestic savings rate the Japanese savings rate has fallen (2025) to 5%, which , as can be seen from Table 1 to be at the bottom of current world savings rates

Figure 1 Global Comparisons of Savings rates

Country Annual Saving Rate (2025) Descriptor
Luxembourg 18% Highest in Europe/long tradition of high saving
Switzerland 17% High Income and Financial literacy of the population
South Korea 8,5 Highest non-European, strong retirement focus
United States 7.0 Moderate rate, high income but low discipline
UK 10.7 Relatively high rates since Covid 19
Australia 4.2 Low saving rates driven by high cost of living
Japan 5.0 Low by historical standards influenced by aging population
Canada 5.0 Low  savings rate since Covid 19

Source Gross National Savings Rate by Country 2025

Japan’s declining savings rate is driven by a mix of demographic, economic, and policy factors that have reshaped household behaviour over the past few decades. The main factors were:

Aging Population and Demographics

Lower fertility rates and a rapidly aging population mean fewer working-age individuals contributing to savings. Older people tend to dissave—spend their accumulated savings in retirement—leading to a natural decline in national savings.

 Economic Stagnation and Low Returns

 Japan has faced low economic growth since the 1990s, reducing incentives and capacity to save.  The after-tax real return on capital has dropped significantly—from 6% in 1990 to 4% in 2000—making saving less attractive.

Negative Interest Rates

The Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates to combat deflation and stimulate spending. This policy discourages saving by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves, pushing consumers toward spending rather than saving.

Monetary Policy and Consumer Behaviour

Aggressive monetary easing and asset purchases have altered consumer expectations, encouraging more consumption. Households may feel less pressure to save due to perceived government support and low borrowing costs.

 

to be continued

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