Introduction
Artificial intelligence (AI) relates to the ability of machines or computer programs to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and language translation. ( https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go ) Currently it consists of an array of techniques and infrastructure including machine learning, robotics, artificial neutral networks, and natural language processing. It is both a major driver of economic growth (micro and macro) and a source of economic disruption.
AI is also a source of fear, first that it will cause mass unemployment and, at the extreme, singularity. where machines surpass humans and take control. Some have predicted this will occur within 7years (When Will the Singularity Happen? Scientist Says by 2031 (popularmechanics.com) So, given the push by many to increase AI development is this a classic case of the Turkeys voting for an early Christmas?
The appeal of AI
Technology, especially robotics have revolutionised the labour market and replaced manual labour in many occupations. This is considered a good thing , unless you are one of those displaced, It is considered a natural progression in economic evolution, particularly as historically the income effect of technical change (job creation) has outweighed the substitution effect (job loss) Economist David Autor has shown that there is consistent turnover in job types , showing that 80 percent of current jobs did not even exist in the 1940’s
AI goes one better than mere technical change. it doesn’t (for the most part) need human supervision once set up. It mimics and predicts human behaviour, through machine learning, to “think” for itself. The self- drive car is good example of this,
By taking the thinking part out of jobs profile, the spread of AI has the potential to disrupt many of the administrative and creative jobs that were previously sought after and thought to be secure. Consultants, lawyers, architects, journalists and consulting physicians all provide services that, to a degree can be matched by AI, and whose services can be produced cheaper, more quickly and arguably better than their human counterparts. The story “Fakes, Facts and Figures. How AI is influencing Journalism (https://www.goethe.de/prj/k40/en/lan/aij.html) estimates that AAP alone published 40.000 AI produced stories (about 1/5 of all stories) in 2023. Lawyers are at even more risk, with AI being able to be produced useful legal summations at a fraction of the time and cost of lawyers. As might be expected, the court are regulating against AI produced court documents, but many would argue that a shakeup to the cost and rigidity of the law profession is long overdue. Others fear that the AI cost saving job replacing momentum is leading us towards the dreaded singularity.
Singularity
The AI singularity, also known as the technological singularity, refers to a hypothetical future point where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence. At this stage, AI would be capable of self-improvement and rapid advancements beyond human control or understanding. The concept suggests that once AI reaches this level of intelligence, it could lead to unpredictable and potentially transformative changes in society.
The Easter Island effect
The inhabitants of Easter Island continued to erode the stock of timber until it was exhausted, in other words they did not act to preserve their civilisation. They did this out of ignorance; but our society recognises the danger of uncontrolled AI, so why would humanity develop AI to the point that it may replace them? The answer lies in a cross between social Darwinism, the pursuit of profit and the desire by some to dominate others. The development and subsequent expansion of the atomic bomb programme serves as an example of the self-destructive nature of humans, in which, not only did they invent a device capable of mass and catastrophic destruction but have spent the subsequent decades make the program many times more destructive. AI may follow the same pattern. There is a global race for AI supremacy and those left behind will be at the mercy of cyber bullying from others. The ability for AI rich counties to bully others will be tempting, with possible catastrophic effects.
