Introduction
Introduction
During my recent visit to Japan, I was fortunate enough to talk and discuss the Japanese economy with one of Japan’s leading business consultants at the American Club in Tokyo. Surprisingly, although I had undertaken, what I considered due diligence in terms of reviewing the available economic data, his views and mine on the current and future outlook for the Japanese economy differed sharply.
While I cited evidence of falling per capita income (Japan now ranked 24th in the world and falling), rising debt, increased inflation, rising dependency ratios and increased competition from China and others to Japan’s key exports as signs of decline, he cited evidence of a resilience in manufacturing, progress in AI and high personal domestic savings as a reason for his optimism.
Differences between economists are not unusual, but these differences are more pronounced than usual. For this reason, our interview is a good example of how data analysis can clash with insider “gut feelings in economic analysis. For those interested please request a copy of the link to the interview video by leaving you email adress in the comments section or emailing me to request.
Thank you
